Friday, 7 January 2011

Simulated research: an experimental life

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, a group of research scientists set up a simulation experiment using multiple artificial intelligences running on a vast array of extremely fast supercomputers. The simulation was of the emergence of life on an insignificant little blue-green planet orbiting a small unregarded yellow sun in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western spiral arm of the galaxy.*

The scientists entered certain values into an instance of this simulation, such that sooner or later simulated life would not only emerge on this simulated planet, but would develop simulated intelligence, income tax and rice pudding. And this is what in fact happened.

The intelligent simulated life-forms began to wonder what it was all for, and some speculated about the group of scientists (though of course they did not call them such) who had instigated the whole thing. They came up with a number of theories, including the suggestion that the research scientists themselves (though of course they did not call them such) didn't actually exist. "There's no compelling evidence," they said, "that the universe we live in was created by a group of research scientists" — though they did not use those exact words. "The burden of proof rests with those who claim that the universe was created by a group of research scientists." (Though the words they used might not have been exactly those.)

Some others felt that the doubters were obviously wrong. "Look at the simulated trees," they said (or words to that effect). "The evidence for the existence of the group of research scientists is all around us. How else could simulated life arise, if not by the intentional actions of a group of research scientists?"

The doubters, however, were not impressed. Some of them had done scientific research themselves, and had discovered that much of the simulated life around them, including themselves, exhibited signs of common structure, as if all the various examples of complex simulated life were derived from a much simpler simulated life, and had developed, over a long period of time, from such simple simulated life. They found that they could tinker with that structure and cause certain types of simulated life to develop in particular ways. By examining the structure of all simulated life, they were able to document how it had developed from, ultimately, something very simple indeed.

Those who held to the theory that the simulated universe was instigated by a group of research scientists had to agree that it was not necessary for said research scientists to tinker in any ongoing way, except occasionally in response to special appeals. Sometimes it was felt necessary that events should proceed in a way that did not conform to the established, well-known pattern. Such non-conforming events (if indeed they were non-conforming — some of the doubters disputed even this) were naturally taken as evidence for the existence of the group of research scientists. But though the doubters had shown that the research scientists were not strictly necessary in the normal run of things, they had not shown how everything could have started off at the beginning of time. Surely, therefore, the group of research scientists were responsible for that?

"Not necessarily," said the doubters. "We know how all complex simulated life has developed from simpler simulated life, right back to the least complex simulated life. It seems likely that we will discover how that simplest simulated life came into being."

"But you don't know, do you? It's reasonable, therefore, to suppose that the research scientists were responsible."

"No, we don't know," said the doubters, "but that's no excuse for falling back on an entirely unsupported theory that has no evidence and cannot be falsified."

"You just don't want there to be a group of research scientists, do you? Clearly you're in denial. Or maybe you can't bear the thought of a group of research scientists watching your every move and taking notes."

The doubters were unmoved by what they considered to be appeals to emotion. They had looked at the evidence for the group of research scientists and found it wanting. They were aware that their own research was incomplete, that they still lacked information, but felt justified in reserving judgement regarding the existence of the group of research scientists.

Others did not agree. "How come," they said to the doubters, "that the universe we live in is just the way it is — a way that appears exactly right for us? It must have been made that way so we could be here. And we know who made it. It was obviously the group of research scientists."

"No," said the doubters. "You've got it backwards. We are exactly like we are because we live here. Our universe is what makes us what we are, not the other way around."

"But what made our universe? It must have been the group of research scientists!"

"What made the group of research scientists?" asked the doubters.

"Now you're just being silly."

Of course the group of research scientists observed all of these exchanges and did indeed take notes. Eventually they decided — for no particular reason — that the experiment was complete, and they switched off the simulation.

*With apologies to George Lucas and Douglas Adams

Thursday, 6 January 2011

Burnee links for Thursday

Top Conversation Killers for Atheists: How Religious Theists Can Hurt Their Cause
Good, basic advice — but are the right people going to read it?

An Insulting Message of Peace
Happy New Year from Pope Benny, who lives in a place not unlike Disneyland — a fantasy constructed around a totally unrealistic view of the rest of the world.

“Integrating” Science and Religion « Choice in Dying
Eric MacDonald on the error of Adam and Eve.

The day the devil went to seminary and other bizarre things
Need confirmation of the essential vacuity of theology? Check this out (and the comments).

Accommodationism at Berkeley/NCSE website « Why Evolution Is True
Are science and religion compatible? There are some scientists who are religious, and there are religious believers who do good science. But that doesn't alter the fact that religion makes claims that science has repeatedly shown can't possibly be true. Or the fact that science has shown that the universe works in ways that are in direct contradiction to religious dogma.

Daylight Atheism > Abortion Care at Catholic Hospitals
More unbending Catholic dogma coming to light. Why any woman of child-bearing age would want to remain in this religion is a complete mystery.

House Republicans Appoint Climate Change Deniers to Committee Chairs | Center for Inquiry
Welcome, America, to your new unscientific overlords.

Religion and the Madness of Crowds | Center for Inquiry
"Religion is essentially a form of deception," says John Shook.

Can one do philosophy of religion? | Evolving Thoughts
John Wilkins wonders if all the old religious arguments should be indexed to save time, then they could be refuted by number.

Young Freethought: Hitchens vs Blair Analysed
A useful commentary on the recent Blair-Hitch Project in Toronto, along with a mostly complete video of the event:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddsz9XBhrYA

Wednesday, 5 January 2011

"Even idiots?" (Out of the mouths of babes...)

A welcome reminder from Ron Britton at Bay of Fundie alerted me to this gem of a clip from Outnumbered:

http://youtu.be/c0BaYBhjC00


Outnumbered is written by Guy Jenkin and Andy Hamilton. (Andy Hamilton is responsible for that exemplar of the BBC's religious radio programming, Old Harry's Game — set in Hell.)

Tuesday, 4 January 2011

Now at PodCastle - my latest narration

"Balfour and Meriwether in the Adventure of the Emperor's Vengeance" by Daniel Abraham, narrated by Paul S. Jenkins, is now available for free download at PodCastle.

With elements of secret religious history this steampunk fantasy is set in Victorian London, speculating on an alternative origin of the industrial age. Download it now, put it on your iPod, burn it to a CD, or listen on the website. Your comments are welcome on the Escape Artists Discussion Forum. Enjoy.

Monday, 3 January 2011

Does the Universe have a purpose? — a debate in Puebla, Mexico

This debate was part of the International Festival of Great Minds conference that took place in November 2010, at BUAP Benemerita Universidad Autónoma De Puebla on the theme of “The Origins of the Future — A Life Experience: Rebirth.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6tIee8FwX8


Notable for its fortuitous placing of Richard Dawkins against William Lane Craig — an opposition that Dawkins has hitherto vocally declined — this debate had probably the weirdest format I've ever seen. The participants gave their speeches in a boxing ring!

On the "No" side (the universe does not have a purpose) were Matt Ridley, Michael Shermer and Richard Dawkins, and on the "Yes" side were Douglas Geivett, David Wolpe and William Lane Craig. Michio Kaku provided a kind of commentary towards the end, declaring both sides wrong.

Craig doesn't change; his style of debate doesn't vary from one event to another. As usual he restated the motion, declaring what his side believes, and (in a characteristic effort to erect a suitably inflammable straw man) what the other side believes, and stated what the other side must prove, and what his side would show. As usual he shifted the burden of proof, declaring that it was up to the other side to show that the universe does not have a purpose. Pardon me for being stubborn, but if I'm told that something I can't detect is in fact there despite my inability to detect it, I tend not to change my mind about its existence unless shown compelling evidence.

On the contrary (and as expected), Craig took the existence of a purpose to the universe as the default position. He did concede, however, that if God does not exist, then the universe does not have a purpose. Unfortunately for the legitimacy of his argument he took the flip side of that premise to be that if the universe does have a purpose, then the God of Biblical theism exists. For someone who claims to be a philosopher this false dilemma was a disingenuous tactic. In his usual manner Craig also ran through ten arguments for the existence of a Creator in one of his rebuttals, claiming they were persuasive when in fact they were nothing of the kind — all ten have been long since repeatedly refuted, but that doesn't stop him trotting them out on demand.

This particular debate format was bad enough that it tended to limit speeches to superficial point-scoring. The maximum time allowed for the six initial presentations was six minutes each, with subsequent rebuttals at less than two minutes — hardly enough time to refute even one fallacious argument for the existence of a deity, let alone ten.

Whether or not the universe has a purpose, I'm not sure what purpose this debate served. To my biased sensibilities the "No" side won hands down, but the whole affair was less than edifying. One good thing to come out of it, however, was further exposure of William Lane Craig's empty rhetoric.

Sunday, 2 January 2011

Andy Nyman at TAM London 2010

DSC_1809w_AndyNymanAs part of a series of official and unofficial fringe events taking place around the weekend of TAM London, attendees were offered discounted tickets to see Ghost Stories, a live stage show currently running at the Duke of York's Theatre. The show is produced by — and stars — Andy Nyman, whom I knew only from some TV appearances (for example in Charlie Brooker's zombie Big Brother spoof, Dead Set) and from his being credited as Derren Brown's co-writer.

DSC_1811w_AndyNymanThe discounted tickets, it turned out, were for a performance of Ghost Stories on Friday evening at 9 pm, exclusively for TAM London delegates. The show is billed as the scariest in London, and I had serious doubts as to how it would play to an auditorium of skeptics.

DSC_1814w_AndyNymanTo my surprise, however, Ghost Stories is a skeptical show, but no less scary for that. Indeed it was very scary, and spookily so — in the grand tradition of truly supernatural horror. The show's generally light-hearted tone is liberally punctuated with unsettling moments and unexpected shocks. Throughout the performance the tension increases as the audience's nervous laughter repeatedly morphs into gasps of terror. At one point towards the end of the evening someone in my row emitted a piercing shriek while jumping literally out of his seat.

DSC_1815w_AndyNymanSo the following day it was a subdued Andy Nyman who took to the TAM London stage when Amateur Transplants had finished entertaining us immediately after lunch. Not everyone in the room had been to see Ghost Stories the previous evening, so he could not talk about the show in any depth. The format was not a talk or lecture, but the first of several discussions at TAM London. Andy Nyman was on stage with Richard Wiseman, with whom he has previous associations (there were photographs to back this up), and they had a nice chat that we were able to overhear, and — in the subsequent Q&A — to join in.

DSC_1816w_AndyNymanThe effectiveness of Ghost Stories as a live experience relies to a large degree on the element of surprise, and Andy Nyman wasn't going to give the game away for those who hadn't seen it. He did, however, talk generally about what goes into making a successful show, whether on stage or on TV, and about his association with Derren Brown.

If you haven't seen Ghost Stories, do.

Saturday, 1 January 2011

Some New Year thoughts on presuppositional logic

"Logic" is part and parcel of the nature of existence. How do I know my reasoning has any validity? Simple: I am aware that logic exists. Therefore I can rely on logic when I use reason as a path to knowledge. How do I know logic exists? The fact that I know anything at all is an indication that the underlying logic of reasoning is valid.

I can assume my reasoning is valid, because if I wasn't able to do it I wouldn't be able to make that assumption. Assuming things is part of the act of reasoning.

Presuppositionalists, however, claim that reasoning is only possible because God exists. They assume that if God hadn't created logic we wouldn't be able to reason, and that because we can reason, therefore God exists.

But logic isn't something separate and above the universe. Logic is not transcendent, it's merely a description of an aspect of the universe as we experience it. Asking whether there are absolute laws of logic is akin to asking if there's an absolute universe. It's like asking if there is matter and energy that is somehow "outside" the matter and energy of the universe, or "beyond" space and time. You might as well ask what happens when an irresistible force hits an immovable object, or what is the mathematical formula for the area of a square circle, or what's the marital status of a married bachelor. These questions don't make sense, and just because they can be asked doesn't mean they have answers. They don't.

Presuppositionalists claim that unbelievers have no basis for assuming that  their reasoning is valid, because (they say) we use unvalidated reasoning in an attempt to validate itself. On the other hand, presuppositionalists assume their reasoning is valid because reasoning was created by God. This, of course, presupposes the existence of God, and is the ultimate God-of-the-gaps argument: the only way that reasoning will work is if it was created by God — therefore God exists. But I would throw the presuppositionalists' question back at them: how do they know that their reasoning is valid? It isn't enough to say that God created reasoning, or even to say that there exist absolute laws of logic that transcend the universe. How do they know that? How do they know that such knowledge is true?

The truth is, they don't.